SIPP PROGRESS

Current Value (As at 4th September 2017) = £154,107 including cash
Target for 31st December 2017 = £170,000 (was £153,000)
Value at commencement of this blog on 1st August 2012 = £51,684.02.
Monthly contributions since commencement of blog = 36mths @ £300 plus 24 months @ £750 = £28,800
Capital Growth = £154,107 less (£51,684.02 + £28,800) = £73,623+

Tuesday, 5 September 2017

Portfolio Review 5th September 2017

BAE Systems PLC (BA.)
This companies SP (share price) has been consistently growing since September 2015 when the SP was under 450.  In mid-June this year the SP peaked at 675. By mid-July the SP had dropped below the 50-day MA (moving average) and had I noted that, then I would have been on the alert to sell off before (or just as) the SP dropped below the 200-day MA - which is what happened on 20th July whe the SP was at 612. The recent weakness seems to have "bottomed" at 575 which the SP closed at on 8th August. If I had sold at 612 on 20th July, then I would not be looking to move back into the company until the SP closed above the 200-day MA, which is currently at about 618. I'm not sure why the SP has been weak recently as the company has a massive forward order book and, with the current issues in the World, it would seem to me that demand for the company products will increase, and with it will increase the company profits. I remain a holder.

Blackrock Smaller Companies IT (BRSC)
I acquired the majority of the shares held between March 2015 and October 2016.  Unfortunately, when I "re-balanced" the SIPP Portfolio in January this year, I sold off 221 shares at an SP of 1000.80 which (in hindsight) with the SP now at 1245 (and having hit a year high of 1265) was a bit silly. The SP is currently at a discount of 13.70% to the NAV (Net Asset Value), and that discount is slightly better than the average discount of 15.14% for the past 12 months. I'd like the discount to narrow, but that is unlikely to happen, as the discount has only been below 12% on a couple of occasions this year, and has been as large at 20%. When I started building the stake in this company, it was to represent 10% of the total value of the portfolio, but with the holding valued at £14,700 it is a bit light and (again) in hindsight I should not have sold those shares in January. I remain a holder and (probably) a buyer when funds become available to return it to 10% of the portfolio value.

G4S PLC (GFS)
When I bought shares in G4S in the early summer of 2016 it was as a recovery play. My initial purchase on 10th May '16 was 620 @ 194, and my next purchase was another 345 @ 173: all-in-all 965 shares at an average price of 190. I continued to buy throughout the recovery, with my final purchase on 9th August this year of 352 shares @ 313. That purchase was possibly one too many, as before the ink was dry the SP dropped to under 300 and then on the 31st August (last week) dropping below the 200-day MA of 283. The SP is still in the 284-286 range and my dilemma is which way is the SP going to go next? The recent scandals in the domestic market are not good for the image of the company, but the fundamentals are sound. Revenue is growing, and so are profits, and the dividend is being maintained. Their work may be under scrutiny, but by far the majority of the workforce do a great job. I remain a holder and will likely increase the holding if the SP drops below 270.

Glaxosmithkline PLC (GSK)
This company has been a part of my SIPP portfolio since August 2014 (3 years), and - to be honest - I don't know why I continue to hold it. I sold a large portion of the holding in July 2016 when the SP was at 1660, and right now I wish I hold sold the lot. The SP has topped 1700 four-times since July 2016, the most recent occasion being on 23-26th June this year, but the SP has also dropped below 1550 on four-times in the same period, the most recent being when it hit a low of 1480 on the 21st August. The SP looks almost impossible to predict, but when the SP dropped below the 200-day MA of 1610 on 21st July that was a bad sign and I really should have sold then. Right now, I don't think the SP will drop below 1500 and if it closes above the current 200-day MA of 1519 in next week or so and shows some strength then I will hold and set a target price of 1650 at which to sell out.  If it wasn't for the dividends I would have moved-on from this company a long time ago.

GVC Holdings PLC (GVC)
On of the success stories of the SIPP.  Yes, GVC is involved in the gambling industry.  I bought my entire holding (bar reinvestment of dividends) in 2015 at an average SP of 450. I wish I had kept on buying as on 1st December 2015, the SP hit a low of 372.  Apart from a period of weakness between Oct'16 and Feb'17 when the SP slipped from 760 to 610, the company has remained on track and very profitable. Revenue is growing very quickly and all broker forecasts suggest an SP of between 875-1000 is possible within the next 6 months. Very much a hold, and I would be very surprised if we ever see an SP below 700 again.

Lancashire Holdings PLC (LRE)
I bought 1000 shares in LRE in Jan-Feb 2015 at an average SP of 623, and the increases in the holding to 1209 shares today have been made through the reinvestment of dividends. It is disappointing that the current SP of 665 is so far below the year-high of 775, but then the SP does swing considerably during the year.  The company can make enormous profits, and there have been large special dividends paid in each of the past 5 years. The devastating hurricane in Texas this summer will have had an effect on the SP, and the company increased its "disaster" insurance with exposure to hurricanes this year.  So, the depressed SP is almost certainly due to this increased exposure.  However, LRE is one of only 3 specialist "Lloyds" insurers listed on the London Stock Exchange and it would be no surprise to see a bid if the SP stays at this level (below 670) for much longer.

Legal & General Group PLC (LGEN)
I purchased most of my holding in July-August 2016 at prices under 206, so the strength of the SP in the past 12 months - reaching a year-high of 279 on 9th August - has been very welcome. The 200-day MA is at 254.50 so the SP (which has retreated recently) is very close to that. Given the very buoyant half-year results which reported a 27% increase in profits, I can't understand the recent weakness in the SP and I'd expect the strength to return during the autumn. Again, this remains a hold.

Paysafe Group PLC (PAYS)
The bid finally came but, at 590p per share, it wasn't as generous as expected. I've trimmed my holding by 1000 shares to use the proceeds elsewhere and await either conclusion of the bid process or a potential new bidder arriving on the scene.

Sage Group PLC (SGE)
Although I'm sitting on a small profit with most of my holding bought at around 650 earlier this year, I'm not expecting major movements in the SP. Sage looks a slow-burner, and therefore remains a hold.

Segro PLC (SGRO)
I love this company. Even since I became involved way back in August 2014 (3 years ago) with the SP at 356 this company has done nothing wrong. The market, however, makes up its own mind - and this is why you should form your own opinion and follow it. I decided to buy up to 410, and my last purchase was at 407 in July 2015 - and I have had plenty of opportunities to increase my holding since then, but I've invested elsewhere. I don't think having multi-holdings is a good idea, as this is the concept of risk mitigation - and if you mitigate your risk, you limit your opportunity. This company remains a very strong hold, especially in this age of Brexit and in the knowledge that Segro has a virtual stranglehold on storage space around Heathrow Airport. Imports will become very important soon - I will leave it at that...

Senior PLC (SNR)
A recent addition to the portfolio in April this year at an ave price of 207 - I bought into this company as it is involved in aerospace and defence and I thought it was oversold at below 200 after hitting a high of 354 in April 2015. I admit I was heavily influenced in my purchase by the Investors Chronicle and I haven't looked back. I doubt there is much further growth in the SP above 300, and it may be that I'm about to sell out and move on.

XBT Provider (XBT-BIT)
I am sure anyone reading this will have a "Marmite" feeling. With crypto-currency you either love it or hate it - you will not be sitting on the fence. I think - sorry that's wrong, I know (as far as my knowledge will allow) - that crypto-currency will completely revolutionise the entire economic make-up of the modern world. I am not saying that "traditional" currencies will cease to exist - they won't.  The entire world will not - it cannot - be modernised. I think (it's just my opinion as I will be long dead and gone before it's realised) that the "modern" world and the introduction of artificial intelligence will see a resurgence in "traditional" ways of life. How will it be financed? Society will reject the current situation that has dominant companies: Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, etc making enormous profits, and then just sitting on the money as the amounts are just too huge for individual companies to manage. Taxation of corporations and the use of "universal credit" will see people move away from stressful, computer-screen based jobs, to occupations that require hands-on skills and will form a new leisure industry.
How will crypto-currency benefit? Before we get there, banking as we know it will break-down, because the banking model doesn't work in the modern world, it is too slow and expensive. It's not just me saying this, there is a lot of information on the internet but, like when the horse-less carriage was introduced (the motor-car to you and me) change takes time to be accepted.  
I've bought 800 units in XBT-BIT which is equivalent to 4 Bitcoin. I think that bitcoin will eventually be the basis of all international currency transactions (unless something else comes along which is better), and the cost savings use of bitcoin (and the like) will allow for the increased taxation of profits and the instigation of universal credit that will transform society. Bitcoin is currently valued at between US$4000 - US$5000 but I can see this value increasing 10-fold within 2 or 3 years as knowledge and acceptance occurs. It really would not surprise me to see Bitcoin attain values of over US$500,000 per coin within my lifetime - assuming that I live another 20 years or so.   As such, it should be no surprise that I intend to hold on to by Bitcoin.

2 comments:

  1. The SP of Lancashire Holdings is suffering as the hurricanes hit the US. I have to wonder if this company (which has been so well managed in the past few years) has lost the plot - and it's profits - by buying exposure to hurricanes. Could the management be so stupid? I'm betting that they aren't and the market has over-reacted.

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  2. Legal & General (another insurance company) has dropped to its 200-day MA - and with the SP at this price, and with such a good dividend, this company looks a bargain.

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