Current Value (As at 31st July 2018) = £174,203 including cash
Target for 8th November 2018 = £183,474 (see Projected Growht page)
Value of SIPP at commencement of this blog on 1st August 2012 = £51,684.02.
Monthly contributions since commencement of blog = 36mths @ £300 plus 34 months @ £750 = £36,300
Capital Growth is £174,203 less (£51,684+£36,300) = £86,219

Monday, 12 June 2017

Post-election thoughts on the SIPP

 The current holdings are:
1) BAE (BA.) : 1095 shares @ 665
2) BlackRock Smaller Co IT (BRSC) : 1170 shares @ 1100 (was 1248.00)
3) G4S (GFS) : 2023 shares @ 331.00
4) GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) : 393 shares @ 1690.00
5) GVC Holdings (GVC) : 1017 shares @ 770.50 (was 812.00)
6) Imperial Brands (IMB) : 170 shares @ 3595.50 (was 3680.50)
7) JPMorgan Emerging Markets (JMG): 625 shares @ 800.00
8) Lancashire Holdings (LRE) : 1209 shares @ 690.00 
9) Legal & General (LGEN): 2396 shares @ 257.00
10) Pacific Assets (PAC) : 1912 shares @ 258.50
11) Paysafe (PAYS) : 8000 shares @ 498.50
12) Sage Group (SGE): 925 shares @ 680.00 (was 713.50)
13) Schroder Asia-Pacific (SDP) : 1252 shares @ 414.00
14) Segro (SGRO) : 1607 shares @ 498.00
15) Senior (SNR) : 1560 shares @ 236.60
Cash @ £4,148
SIPP Value = £139,750

Overall, the SIPP has performed well following the General Election result, but there have been a few valuation reductions; notably with the UK Smaller Company IT (BRSC).  The only other significant correct is that of GVC which is down to 770.50 from 812.00 (which is about 5%). Through the election week, it became apparent to me that the market was looking fairly resilient and that was the case come Friday morning when the result was known.
Overall, the SIPP has still gained over £4,000 in value (there was a £750 contribution last week), which is another 3% and that cannot be sniffed at.

I have to give myself a bit of a pat on the back as when the election was called back in April, my post on 18th April did suggest that the decision by Theresa May to hold an election was audacious and would be either declared brave or stupid depending on the result. My prediction then was it would be a Labour-led coalition government - so I was correct in predicting a "hung" parliament, and missed-out on being absolutely spot-on with my prediction by just a few seats.  If Labour had won just another 2 seats from the Conservatives then the current "alliance" between Conservatives and the Ulster DUP would not have been enough to guarantee a government.  I actually had a wager on the number of seats Labour would win, and took the 7/1 available on Labour winning between 250-299 seats - odds which I considered extremely generous given the indications of the polls which was backing-up my own opinion.

I will be looking to maintain current holdings in the SIPP for the time being, unless I come across something that looks to good an opportunity to miss.  The markets were up on Friday, but are down today, and we could see this uncertainty until we know whether Theresa May will remain the Prime Minister (a leadership bid is anticipated), or we are heading back to the polls for another election in the autumn.

The problem for both the major parties is, if we do head back to the polls, whether there will be a clear winner.  No doubt, the Conservatives will put up a much better fight next time round and will be more "optimistic" rather than sniping and name-calling which certainly did not help their cause this time. As for Labour, they have to not just maintain the momentum but carry it on.  There was talk over the weekend that another couple of weeks of campaigning would have won them a clear victory - but that was against a poorly led Conservative party.  What I think is the only clear point is that the centre parties (Lib-Dems and Greens) and the more nationalistic extremists (UKIP and to some extent SNP) are dead in the water for the time-being.  If SNP are losing seats to the Conservatives in Scotland, then the Scottish vote is there for taking by Labour - but they may not have time to mobilise an adequate campaign if there is an election this autumn.  The more I think about it, the more I think that Labour have had their chance in 2017 and if we return to the polls - so long as the Conservatives don't do anything silly in the next few months - it is unlikely that Labour will be able to secure the gains they need to form a government.  Remember, they would need a significant swing in the vote to obtain a controlling majority, and so the likelihood is that they would only be able to form a coalition government with the SNP and Plaid Cymru.  Whether that would appeal to the voting public is debateable, so the probability is that the result of a autumn election would be a slight increase in Conservative seats.

Given that outlook, the prospects for the stockmarkets is probably fair as, with Conservatives in power, the Brexit negotiations are more likely to be more hard-line that conciliatory, and that will ensure a weaker £ which will hold shares at their current inflated values in the short-term.  Long-term growth for the UK though, is not good.       

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